Disclaimer: I know nothing. The following is (hopefully) well educated speculation on my part. Time will tell whether I’m right.

I really like Silverlight. I’ve been a strong proponent of Silverlight since 2007 when I rushed to port CSLA .NET to the new platform.

In fact, Magenic provided me with a dev and test team to make that transition happen, because we all saw the amazing potential of Silverlight.

And it has been a good few years.

But let’s face reality. Microsoft has invested who-knows-how-much money to build WinRT, and no matter how you look at it, WinRT is the replacement for Win32. That means all the stuff that runs on Win32 is “dead”. This includes Silverlight, Windows Forms, WPF, console apps – everything.

(this is partially in answer to Mary-Jo’s article on Silverlight 5)

I wouldn’t be surprised if Silverlight 5 was the last version. I also wouldn’t be surprised if .NET 4.5 was the last version for the Win32 client, and that future versions of .NET were released for servers and Azure only.

Before you panic though, remember that VB6 has been “dead” for well over a decade. It died at the PDC in 1999, along with COM. But you still use VB6 and/or COM? Or at least you know organizations who do? How can that be when it is dead??

That’s my point. “dead” isn’t really dead.

Just how long do you think people (like me and you) will continue to run Win32-based operating systems and applications? At least 10 years, and many will probably run 15-20 years into the future. This is the rate of change that exists in the corporate world. At least that’s been my observation for the past couple decades.

Microsoft supports their technologies for 10 years after a final release. So even if SL5 is the end (and they haven’t said it is), that gives us 10 years of supported Silverlight usage. The same for the other various .NET and Win32 technologies.

That’s plenty of time for Microsoft to get WinRT mature, and to allow us to migrate to that platform over a period of years.

I don’t expect WinRT 1.0 (the Windows 8 version) to be capable of replacing Win32 or .NET. I rather expect it to be pretty crippled in many respects. Much like VB 1.0 (and 2.0), .NET 1.0 and 1.1, Silverlight 1 and 2, etc.

But Windows 9 or Windows 10 (WinRT 2.0 or 3.0) should be quite capable of replacing Win32 and .NET and Silverlight.

If we assume Win8 comes out in 2012, and that Microsoft does a forced march release of 9 and 10 every two years, that means 2016 will give us WinRT 3.0. And if we hold to the basic truism that Microsoft always gets it right on their third release, that’ll be the one to target.

I think it is also reasonable to expect that Win9 and Win10 will probably continue to have the “blue side” (see my Windows 8 dev platform post), meaning Win32, .NET, and Silverlight will continue to be released and therefore supported over that time. They may not change over that time, but they’ll be there, and they’ll be supported – or so goes my theory.

This means that in 2016 the clock might really start for migration from Win32/.NET/Silverlight to WinRT.

Yes, I expect that a lot of us will build things for WinRT sooner than 2016. I certainly hope so, because it looks like a lot of fun!

But from a corporate perspective, where things move so slowly, this is probably good news. Certain apps can be ported sooner, but big and important apps can move slowly over time.

What to do in the meantime? Between now and 2016?

Focus on XAML, and on n-tier or SOA async server access as architectural models.

Or focus on HTML 5 (soon to be HTML 6 fwiw, and possibly HTML 7 by 2016 for all we know).

I’m focusing on XAML, creating a CSLA 4 version 4.5 release that supports .NET 4.5 on servers, Azure, Windows (Win32), and Windows (WinRT). And Silverlight 5 of course.

In fact, the plan is for a version 4.3 release to support Silverlight 5, then version 4.5 with support for .NET 4.5 and WinRT.

I suspect that you can use Silverlight or WPF as a bridge to WinRT. The real key is architecture.

1. An n-tier architecture is fine, as long as the data access layer is running on a server, and the client uses async calls to interact with the server. WinRT requires a lot of async, at a minimum all server interactions. Silverlight forces you to adopt this architecture already, so it is a natural fit. WPF doesn’t force the issue, but you can choose to do “the right thing”.
2. You can also build your client applications to be “edge applications” – on the edge of a service-oriented system. This is a less mature technology area, and it is more costly. But it is also a fine architecture for environments composed of many disparate applications that need to interact as a loosely coupled system. Again, all service interactions by the edge applications (the ones running on the clients) must be async.
3. Or you can build “hybrid solutions”, where individual applications are built using n-tier architectures (with async server calls). And where some of those applications also expose service interfaces so they can participate as part of a broader service-oriented system.

I favor option 3. I don’t like to accept the cost and performance ramifications of SOA when building an application, so I’d prefer to use a faster and cheaper n-tier architecture. At the same time, many applications do need to interact with each other, and the requirement to create “application mashups” through edge applications happens from time to time. So building my n-tier applications to have dual interfaces (XAML and JSON for example) is a perfect compromise.

The direct users of my application get n-tier performance and maintainability. And the broader organization can access my slower-moving, standards-based, contractual service interface. It is the best of both worlds.

So do I care if Silverlight 5 is the last version of Silverlight?

Only if WPF continues to evolve prior to us all moving to WinRT. If WPF continues to evolve, I would expect Silverlight to, at a minimum, keep up. Otherwise Microsoft has led a lot of people down a dead-end path, and that’s a serious betrayal of trust.

But if my suspicions are correct, we won’t see anything but bug fixes for WPF or Silverlight for many years. I rather expect that these two technologies just became the next Windows Forms. You’ll notice that WinForms hasn’t had anything but bug fixes for 6 years right? The precedent is there for a UI technology to be “supported, stable, and stagnant” for a very long time, and this is my expectation for WPF/SL.

And if that’s the case, then I don’t care at all about a Silverlight 6 release. We can use WPF/SL in their current form, right up to the point that WinRT is stable and capable enough to act as a replacement for today’s Win32/.NET applications.